Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Steel and Steel Users Cos' Stocks to Fall

Railway Freight for Coal,iron Ore and Steel has been raised by 8.75%.Inflation will rise.RBI may raise rates in the next MPC Meet.The Indices may fall on 1/11/2018.The following Cos' stocks will fall:-
1.Steel 
2.Steel users
3.Coal Fired Boiler users and other Coal users.This means almost 70% if Cos.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

The Main Reasons For A Weak Rupee

The Main Reasons For A Weak Rupee

Things which make the US Dollar or other Foreign Currencies stronger
1.The NDA's 2 Gold Schemes .
2.Half of India's Gold is outside:-
1.200 MT Paper Gold with BIS
ii.48 MT Gold with BoE
iii.20 MT with UBS
3.The $ 140 Billion US Treasury Holdings
4.Forex of $ 400 Billion.

Effect Of A Weak Rupee


Effect Of A Weak Rupee
1.The Governments for that matter,ANY  Rupee-term Debt becomes cheaper.
  Wealth is transferred to the Government from the citizens' savings like the many Post Office and Bank accounts,Pensions,PPF etc,and to the exporters,Borrowers in Rupee terms,like Banks.So these entities benefit.The recent 20% Rupee fall is equivalent to an additional 30% tax on the Citizens.
2,All Foreign Currency Loans become costlier.For example India's Debt of $ 104 Billion from the World bank entails very huge loss as these loans were taken MOSTLY when the Rupee was far stronger at 45 to the $ and below!Interest and principal repayment entails very huge loss for India.
3.Imports become costlier and exports will subsidize the Foreign customers at the cost of Indians.
4.Bonds become weaker.
5.The Rich-Poor gap widens.
Will be updated....

Gold Rising!

Suddenly things have changed.The US Federal Reserve has started tapering and raising rates.Stocks are crashing and Gold is rising.
Gold/Silver ratio is above 84.Silver looks good.
     Stocks in the BSE/NSE have reached their true values or available at a discount.
     NHPC looks good,as the NDA Government has brought out a policy which favours Public Sector  Power Cos over the private ones.
     IOC,ONGC and Oil India share buybacks will make their prices go up. 
Will be updated.......